Bitcoin Macro Index predicts end of bear market: "Rare buying opportunity that almost never happens"
The Bitcoin Macro Index of Charles Edwards' investment fund made its biggest improvement of 2022 in July. Currently, the profile and depth of the Macro Index most closely resembles the January 2019 period, at which time bitcoin was trading at a price of $3,500.
On the website of Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards' investment fund, they write about this event as a "rare opportunity". Based on this, the fund itself decided in June to increase their exposure to bitcoin by 60 percent and plans to add another 25 percent this month.
"This month we left the 'deep value' region. This kind of opportunity only occurs 1.6 percent of the time during a cycle. In other words, historically every four years you have about 23 days to pick up bitcoin at the prices we saw e past few months," Capriole Investments said.
It also reports that last month marked the biggest recovery in on-chain fundamentals since 2021. The Bitcoin Macro Index is a collection of 35 on-chain and macroeconomic data points.
End of bear market?
If Charles Edwards' Bitcoin Macro Index is to be believed, we have already had the best chance to stack cheap sats this cycle. This would mean that, according to this collection of indicators and data points, we have already started the transition phase to a bull market or that we are currently in a new bull market.
Of course, these are only indicators that make predictions about the future on the basis of past results. An interesting way to predict the course of bitcoin's price, but it cannot provide certainty.
In the end, it seems that the fate of the market is in the hands of the Federal Reserve. If inflation does not decline, then there is a chance that the Federal Reserve will continue to pursue their goal of controlling inflation. Which would mean dealing with higher interest rates for longer than expected and that's not good for bitcoin.
These are factors which this model has difficulty taking into account, but which are important for bitcoin's price movement. So never rely completely on this type of model.